horse racing news #TheAction: The Class Strategy

In the previous edition of #TheAction we defined the “class” system and listed the hierarchy of races from the top down as “stakes”, followed by “allowance” races and then “claiming” races. The next step is identifying horses that are moving up or down the class ladder, and then making a determination as to whether they’ll be more or less likely to succeed given their “jump” or “drop” in class.

In the example displayed in the video, #3 Mshawish is coming off a victory in a “Grade-3 stakes race” called the Hal’s Hope (note that all stakes races have names — and they’re often named after successful horses or people in racing). What that tells us is that Mshawish is a very good horse, having won in “stakes company” recently. However, in his upcoming race, he’s running in the Donn Handicap which is a “Grade-1 stakes race”, which ranks a lot higher on the class ladder (and generally attracts tougher horses) than Grade-3 races.

Looking back at Mshawish’s history, he has run in Grade-1 competition recently and he’s twice finished fourth. In his defense, he was only beaten by 1 1/4 lengths the last time he ran in a Grade-1. So, it’s up to the person analyzing the race to decide how Mshawish will perform in his upcoming race, again facing tougher Grade-1 competition. A lot of that analysis will boil down to going horse-by-horse in the race and comparing the ability of Mshawish to others in the race.

Advanced Action: As outlined in the basic action above, assessing class ability and a horse’s potential revolves around comparing past results with upcoming jumps or drops in class. But, of course, simply looking at what place a horse finished in in a previous race at a particular class level will not generally reveal a completely accurate picture of a horse’s ability.

Making an accurate prediction on class requires the bettor to, for starters, watch replays of past races and take note of things like the pace of those races, whether the pace benefitted or played against each horse, and deciding whether any horses were “compromised by bad trips” in their previous races.

Take, for example, a “speed horse” (referring to one who does its best running when it shows speed out of the gate, gets the lead, and runs loose and unchallenged by other horses) who finished in fourth place in an allowance race. If the horse was challenged out of the gate by two other speed horses, they might be forgiven for tiring and finishing fourth in that allowance race. If that same horse jumps up in class to a Grade-3 stakes race, you can’t just assume it won’t win because it didn’t beat allowance horses last out. On the contrary, if the “pace scenario” dictates that in the upcoming race the same horse might be the “lone speed” horse in the race, you might give the horse a very good chance of winning.

Finding factors like advantageous pace scenarios can be profitable angles that often defy a basic and straightforward “class analysis” that most players at the track might be doing. Searching for previous trip “excuses”, like a horse who didn’t have clear running room or had to check (take up), is another way to identify horses who might run better than meets the eye. Equipment changes, like adding or removing blinkers, can also make a horse run better or worse. You’ll also want to take note of switches in surfaces (from dirt to turf or vice versa) and changes in distance (like going from a six-furlong sprint race to a mile-plus route race) when making assessments about a horse’s class ability.

horse racing news #TheAction: The Class Strategy
1 Likes	1 Dislikes
180 views views	followers
Film & Animation	Upload TimePublished on 12 Jul 2016

Related keywords

belmont stakes 2019 live,horseracing fixtures,kentucky derby winner 2019,breeders' cup turf,churchill downs replays,belmont stakes 2019 en vivo,triple crown complete,kentucky derby hats,belmont stakes 2019 inscritos,breeders' cup challenge series,triple crown champion,thoroughbreds trailer,preakness stakes justify,kentucky derby results,churchill downs night racing,preakness stakes 2018 contenders,kentucky derby horses,preakness stakes live stream,thoroughbreds horses,belmont stakes 2019 entries,breeders cup results,belmont stakes 2017,belmont stakes 2018,belmont stakes 2019,kentucky derby 2019 odds,belmont stakes 2015,thoroughbred horses for sale,breeders cup entries 2018,triple crown collar,churchill downs live stream,thoroughbreds (2017) مترجم,horseracingaustralia,preakness stakes 2015,preakness stakes 2016,preakness stakes 2017,kentucky derby post time,thoroughbreds 2017,triple crown mlb,triple crown 2019,belmont stakes 1973,breeders cup tickets,thoroughbreds قصة,preakness stakes 2019 horses,belmont stakes 2019 odds,belmont stakes 1971,horseracingnation,preakness stakes 2018,preakness stakes 2019,belmont stakes 2019 contenders,belmont stakes contenders,breeders' cup filly & mare turf,horse racing game,kentucky derby odds,breeders cup picks 2018,triple crown pienso opiniones,breeders' cup mile,breeders' cup limited,preakness stakes payouts,kentucky derby winner,churchill downs incorporated,churchill downs results,kentucky derby 2018 horses,thoroughbred horse,horse racing calendar,thoroughbreds imdb,kentucky derby 2018 time,thoroughbreds full movie,thoroughbreds meaning,kentucky derby tickets,churchill downs parking,triple crown trophy,triple crown restaurant,triple crown feed,belmont stakes 2019 transmision,thoroughbreds movie,preakness stakes 2018 results,breeders' cup classic winners,breeders cup results 2018,horse racing,belmont stakes en vivo,horseracing integrity act,horse racing terms,thoroughbreds فيلم,breeders' cup juvenile turf sprint,breeders cup 2018 contenders,belmont stakes 2019 hora,breeders cup 2018 horses,thoroughbred horses,breeders' cup 2019,churchill downs museum,preakness stakes results,preakness stakes 2019 winner,preakness stakes time,horse racing tips,breeders' cup 2020,churchill downs seating chart,horse racing ireland,kentucky derby live,breeders' cup challenge races,churchill downs hours,kentucky derby 2018 results,preakness stakes live,preakness stakes winners,horse racing results,thoroughbreds,thoroughbreds مترجم,triple crown championship,breeders cup classic 2018,triple crown racing,breeders cup classic,horseracingpark,churchill downs dress code,churchill downs entries,thoroughbreds مترجم egybest,thoroughbreds rotten tomatoes,triple crown records,churchill downs stock,kentucky derby 2019,horseracing wrongs,belmont stakes 2019 participantes,kentucky derby 2018,breeders' cup challenge,triple crown accreditation,preakness stakes 2019 results,thoroughbred database,kentucky derby picks,churchill downs fall meet 2019,churchill downs after dark,churchill downs tours,churchill downs jobs,triple crown products,belmont stakes 2019 results,horseracingbuzz,horse racing measure,churchill downs calendar,kentucky derby 2018 odds,churchill downs event crossword,thoroughbred meaning,churchill downs tickets,triple crown salmon,triple crown lovely puppy,preakness stakes odds,preakness stakes 2019 post time,kentucky derby 2019 results,kentucky derby winners,thoroughbred pedigree,triple crown races 2019,triple crown lovely big puppy,triple crown sports,belmont stakes 2019 carrera,triple crown manhwa,preakness stakes race time,belmont stakes 2019 time,http://horseracing.com,horseracing commentary,horseracing museum,kentucky derby museum,churchill downs picks,horseracingonly,